China’s eldercare service system faces dual challenges of rapid demographic aging and persistent caregiver shortages. As robotic technologies emerge as a potential solution, their large-scale integration remains constrained by structural, financial, and user-acceptance barriers. This study aims to bridge this gap by examining the penetration mechanisms and industrialization trajectories of eldercare robots, with a particular focus on aligning service deployment with user experience through a dual-stakeholder adaptation perspective. A comparative PEST analysis of China and Japan, combined with task decomposition, identifies key institutional and market-level constraints shaping deployment scenarios. Enterprise-level analysis of UBTECH Robotics, ECOVACS, and FANUC highlights divergent financial structures and revenue capacities that critically influence deployment capabilities and scalability across domestic and international markets. Building on this, the study develops an integrated analytical framework encompassing service task–functional module adaptation, technology acceptance among older adults, and dual-stakeholder collaborative adaptation. Time-series forecasting and multiple regression analyses of provincial-level data on elderly populations, caregiving expenditures, and workforce shortages reveal national market growth trends and regional demand asymmetries. The findings further inform three key policy recommendations: co-construction of regional service hubs, adoption of performance-based procurement models, and workforce transformation initiatives to support human-robot collaboration. This study provides an integrated framework for analyzing deployment capacity, user acceptance, and structural demand factors, offering empirical insights to inform both policy optimization and product design in advancing the sustainable integration of robotics within eldercare ecosystems.

Yihan Lin. Deployment Pathways and Adaptation Mechanisms of Eldercare Robots: A Structure – Prediction Fusion Modeling Approach. The Frontiers of Society, Science and Technology (2025), Vol. 7, Issue 6: 12-25. https://doi.org/10.25236/FSST.2025.070603.

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