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Academic Journal of Mathematical Sciences, 2023, 4(2); doi: 10.25236/AJMS.2023.040210.

A Method for Simulating the Propagation of Network Hot Topics Based on Combined SEIRS-ARIMA Model


Jingzu Xia, Leyang Yu, Yuli Wang

Corresponding Author:
Jingzu Xia

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing, China, 400715


The spread of hot topics on the internet can easily attract public attention and discussion. However, the spread of rumours can cause social instability, while positive media guidance can generate economic value. Therefore, developing a model that can understand the propagation of popular topics on the internet is a worthwhile pursuit. In this study, a hybrid model is developed by combining the SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) infectious disease model to simulate the overall trend and the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model to simulate noise, to explain internet hot topic propagation. Using the wordle game as a case study, the model exhibits a notable capability in conforming to the general pattern and the majority of the minor variations, while demonstrating a high degree of interpretability.


Internet Hot Topics, SEIRS Model, ARIMA Model

Cite This Paper

Jingzu Xia, Leyang Yu, Yuli Wang. A Method for Simulating the Propagation of Network Hot Topics Based on Combined SEIRS-ARIMA Model. Academic Journal of Mathematical Sciences (2023) Vol. 4, Issue 2: 66-72. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJMS.2023.040210.


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