Maritime transport plays a pivotal role in foreign trade and world economic growth. However, the catastrophic nature of maritime accidents has posed a serious threat to life and the environment. Maritime transport safety is a complex system susceptible to human, equipment and environmental risks. Based on the catastrophe theory, this paper evaluates the risk of Marine traffic, discusses the current development of Marine traffic, the current situation of the Marine traffic environment, and analyzes the applicability of catastrophe theory and the value of Marine traffic safety risk assessment. The basic principle of catastrophe theory is also introduced, and the analytic hierarchy process, N-K model, interpretive structure model, catastrophe series method and other Marine safety risk assessment methods are compared. The catastrophe theory is selected for Marine traffic safety assessment, and the Marine traffic safety risk assessment model based on the catastrophe theory is constructed. Finally, this paper expounds on the preventive measures of Marine traffic safety based on the catastrophe theory from three aspects: humans, ships and the environment. To provide the theoretical basis for the subsequent Marine traffic safety risk assessment based on the catastrophe theory.

Jiang Xinyi. Risk Assessment of Maritime Traffic Safety Based on Catastrophe Theory. The Frontiers of Society, Science and Technology (2023) Vol. 5, Issue 9: 80-84. https://doi.org/10.25236/FSST.2023.050913.

[1] Lili J, Minglu M. Analysis of Maritime Traffic Safety Based on Intrinsic Safety Theory[C]//Journal of Physics: Conference Series. IOP Publishing, 2021, 1827(1): 012040.

[2] Bi J, Gao M, Zhang W, et al. Research on Navigation Safety Evaluation of Coastal Waters Based on Dynamic Irregular Grid[J]. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2022, 10(6): 733.

[3] Li L, Lu W, Niu J, et al. AIS data-based decision model for navigation risk in sea areas [J]. The Journal of Navigation, 2018, 71(3): 664-678.

[4] Han Y, Zhen X, Huang Y. Hybrid dynamic risk modelling for safety critical equipment on offshore installations [J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2021, 156: 482-495.

[5] Vassalos D. A Pioneer of Maritime Safety [J]. Ships and Offshore Structures, 2020, 15(5): 462-467.

[6] Ozbas B. Safety risk analysis of maritime transportation: review of the literature [J]. Transportation research record, 2013, 2326(1): 32-38.

[7] Park C, Kontovas C, Yang Z, et al. A BN driven FMEA approach to assess maritime cybersecurity risks [J]. Ocean & Coastal Management, 2023, 235: 106480.