Academic Journal of Business & Management, 2023, 5(23); doi: 10.25236/AJBM.2023.052329.
Runli Xiong
School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China
Sustainable development involves economy, energy, environment and technology, which intertwine with each other in complicated ways. To achieve sustainable development, it is imperative to study the coordinated development of the four. In this paper, a system dynamics model is constructed to reflect interaction between the economy, energy, environment, and technology by using the data in Sichuan Province between 2010 and 2020. Then five scenarios (current situation, economy development priority, energy development priority, environment protection priority, technology innovation priority) are set up and simulated. Finally, different scenarios are evaluated using the coupling coordination degree model. The results indicate that: in the short term, the system is more coordinated under environment protection priority scenarios; while in the long term, the energy development priority scenario can better achieve the coordinated development. The paper provides recommendations to formulate effective measures and promote sustainable development in Sichuan province.
Economy-energy-environment-technology, System dynamics, Coupling coordination degree
Runli Xiong. Multi-Scenario Forecast of Sustainable Development in Sichuan of China Based on Coupling Evolution Analysis. Academic Journal of Business & Management (2023) Vol. 5, Issue 23: 212-218. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJBM.2023.052329.
[1] Purvis B, Mao Y, Robinson D. Three pillars of sustainability: in search of conceptual origins[J]. Sustainability Science, 2019, 14(3): 681-695.
[2] Gunnarsdottir I, Davidsdottir B, Worrell E, et.al. Sustainable energy development: History of the concept and emerging themes[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2021, 141(February): 110770.
[3] Silvestre B S, Ţîrcă D M. Innovations for sustainable development: Moving toward a sustainable future[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 208: 325-332.
[4] McCollum D L, Echeverri L G, Busch S et.al. Connecting the sustainable development goals by their energy inter-linkages[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13(3).
[5] Fuso Nerini F, Tomei J, To L S et.al. Mapping synergies and trade-offs between energy and the Sustainable Development Goals[J]. Nature Energy, 2018, 3(1): 10-15.
[6] Kihombo S, Vaseer A I, Ahmed Z, et.al. Is there a tradeoff between financial globalization , economic growth , and environmental sustainability ? An advanced panel analysis[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2022, 29(3): 3983-3993.
[7] He X, Sunday T, Kirikkaleli D, et.al. Consumption-based carbon emissions in Mexico : An analysis using the dual adjustment approach[J]. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 2021, 27: 947-957.
[8] Silvestre B S. Sustainable supply chain management in emerging economies: Environmental turbulence, institutional voids and sustainability trajectories[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2015, 167: 156-169.
[9] Kihombo S, Ahmed Z, Chen S, et.al. Linking financial development, economic growth, and ecological footprint: what is the role of technological innovation?[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2021, 28(43): 61235-61245.
[10] Chen M, Sinha A, Hu K, et.al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change Impact of technological innovation on energy efficiency in industry 4 . 0 era : Moderation of shadow economy in sustainable development[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2021, 164(October 2020): 120521.
[11] Liu Y, Yang R, Sun M, et.al. Regional sustainable development strategy based on the coordination between ecology and economy: A case study of Sichuan Province, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2022, 134: 108445.
[12] Liu J, Tian Y, Huang K, et.al. Spatial-temporal differentiation of the coupling coordinated development of regional energy-economy-ecology system: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt [J]. Ecological Indicators, 2021, 124: 107394.
[13] Linderhof V, Dekkers K, Polman N. The role of mitigation options for achieving a low-carbon economy in The Netherlands in 2050 using a system dynamics modelling approach[J]. Climate, 2020, 8(11): 1-24.
[14] Zuo Y, Shi Y ling, Zhang Y zhuo. Research on the sustainable development of an economic-energy-environment (3E) system based on system dynamics (SD): A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China[J]. Sustainability (Switzerland), 2017, 9(10): 1-23.
[15] Xing L, Xue M, Hu M. Dynamic simulation and assessment of the coupling coordination degree of the economy–resource–environment system: Case of Wuhan City in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2019, 230: 474-487.
[16] Zameer H, Yasmeen H, Wang R, et.al. An empirical investigation of the coordinated development of natural resources, financial development and ecological efficiency in China[J]. Resources Policy, 2020, 65(November 2019): 101580.
[17] Fan Y, Fang C, Zhang Q. Coupling coordinated development between social economy and ecological environment in Chinese provincial capital cities-assessment and policy implications[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 229: 289-298.
[18] Wang S jia, Kong W, Ren L, et.al. Research on misuses and modification of coupling coordination degree model in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2021, 36(3): 793-810.