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International Journal of New Developments in Engineering and Society, 2023, 7(9); doi: 10.25236/IJNDES.2023.070903.

Research on Social Stability Early Warning Based on Social Stability Indicator System and Prediction Model


Boyang Li

Corresponding Author:
Boyang Li

School of Accounting, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing, China


This paper focuses on the social stability index system, analyzes the reasons for the success or failure of color revolutions in history by establishing an early warning model of social stability, and finally puts forward suggestions for preventing color revolutions and maintaining social stability. Firstly, six social stability impact indicators of different natures are selected to analyze and construct the indicator system, and it is found that the per capita disposable income is highly correlated with the GDP growth, education investment and social security rate; secondly, a multiple linear regression model containing five indicators is established through the Regress function in the statistical toolbox of MATLAB, and a multiple linear regression model is constructed through the F-test, the correlation coefficient R², the P-value and the Estimated error variance S² and other five main criteria to assess the validity of the model; finally, based on the GM(1,1) prediction model, the social stability indicators were analyzed from 2010-2014, and it was concluded that the model was highly accurate and of high practical value, and trends were analyzed and recommendations were made accordingly [1].


Social Stability Indicators, Early Warning Models, Multiple Linear Regression, GM (1,1) Prediction Models

Cite This Paper

Boyang Li. Research on Social Stability Early Warning Based on Social Stability Indicator System and Prediction Model. International Journal of New Developments in Engineering and Society (2023) Vol.7, Issue 9: 13-19. https://doi.org/10.25236/IJNDES.2023.070903.


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