Academic Journal of Business & Management, 2024, 6(2); doi: 10.25236/AJBM.2024.060212.
Meiling Chen
Guangxi Normal University, Guilin, China
Real estate is a pillar industry of the nation, but bond defaults are highly concentrated in real estate, and it is particularly important to discuss the early warning of bond default risk. On November 15, 2022, S&P downgraded Greenland Holdings' long-term issuer credit rating from "CC" to "SD", which aroused strong concern in the market. "SD", which triggered strong concern in the market. Based on the revised KMV model, this paper conducts quantitative early warning analysis on the bond default risk of Greenland Holdings, and horizontal comparison with real estate companies in the same industry, to explore the timeliness and accuracy of the KMV model for measuring bond defaults of Greenland Holdings and other real estate companies. Focusing on the bond default event of Greenland Holdings, it explores the problems behind it and analyze the reasons for the problems, which are mainly related to the following four aspects aspects: the endogenous funds are insufficient and pull up the financing cost; the structure of the liabilities is unbalanced; the Greenland holdings of the capital chain is tight; the macroeconomic situation of the real estate policy continues to tighten, and finally summarize the countermeasures to prevent the risk of corporate bond defaults proposed.
greenland holding; bond default; KMV model; risk early warning
Meiling Chen. Early Warning Research on Bond Default Risk Based on KMV Model. Academic Journal of Business & Management (2024) Vol. 6, Issue 2: 79-86. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJBM.2024.060212.
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