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The Frontiers of Society, Science and Technology, 2024, 6(3); doi: 10.25236/FSST.2024.060306.

A Predicating Analysis of New Energy Vehicles Development Based on Bass Model

Author(s)

Guo Jianqin1, Yan Xue2

Corresponding Author:
Yan Xue
Affiliation(s)

1Zaozhuang University, Shandong, Zaozhuang, 277000, China

2School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China

Abstract

Predicting the development prospect of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China is of great significance for the rational planning of industrial policies, the improvement of industrial structure and industrial layout, and achieving the orderly development of NEVs market. Based on the Toyota hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) diffusion time series data of 20 years, the author establishes bass diffusion model, estimates the corresponding parameters combining with the characteristics of China's industrial policy, and predicts the development trend of the NEVs industry in China in the three scenarios of maintaining the existing policy strength, policy backslide, and increasing policy strength. The results show that the target of 5 million vehicles ownership will be difficult to achieve in the existing policy strength and the government should adjust the policy strength in various aspects including subsidies to achieve it.

Keywords

new energy vehicles; Bass model; predication; analogy method; scenario analysis

Cite This Paper

Guo Jianqin, Yan Xue. A Predicating Analysis of New Energy Vehicles Development Based on Bass Model. The Frontiers of Society, Science and Technology (2024), Vol. 6, Issue 3: 34-40. https://doi.org/10.25236/FSST.2024.060306.

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