Rice blast can seriously reduce the yield and quality of rice. Studying the identification of suitable habitats for rice blast can provide scientific advice and theoretical basis for blast control planning, reduce control inputs, and increase control efficiency. This study takes China's rice planting areas as the research area and constructs a model for identifying suitable habitats for rice blast based on SCP. The months of April to October, during which rice is mainly planted and harvested, were selected as the research period. Temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, and landform type, which have the greatest impact on the suitability of rice blast, were used as variables of climate and environmental factors. The distribution patterns of suitable habitats for rice blast in different months in the near and future time periods under the three climate scenarios of ssp119, ssp245, and ssp585 were studied. The results show that: (1) From April to July, the high-suitability areas for rice blast gradually migrated northward from the southeastern Guangxi-Guangdong border region. In May and June, the southern Hunan and Guangxi-Guangdong border areas, most of Jiangxi, and southern Hubei were high-suitability areas for rice blast. In July and August, the high-suitability areas for rice blast reached the Jianghuai Region, and in September and October, the high-suitability areas migrated southwestward, with the Sichuan Basin also becoming a high-suitability area for rice blast. (2) Under the three climate scenarios, the distribution patterns of suitable habitats for rice blast in the near-term time period were similar. Among them, the high-suitability areas for rice blast gradually shifted northward under the ssp245 and ssp585 climate scenarios. Compared with the near-term time period, the high-suitability areas for rice blast gradually migrated northward in the future time period, and under the ssp585 climate scenario in the future time period, the Northeast Plain of Heilongjiang became a high-suitability area for rice blast in July. In summary, the rice blast suitable habitat identification model constructed in this study can not only identify the distribution patterns of suitable habitats for rice blast in different months but also study the distribution patterns of suitable habitats for rice blast in the near and future under different climate scenarios. This can guide the planning and timing of rice blast control efforts under changing climate conditions, reduce human and material inputs, and increase net income from rice production.

Naifeisai Nuerhamanti. Study on the Distribution Pattern of Suitable Areas for Rice Blast in China under Different Climate Scenarios. Academic Journal of Agriculture & Life Sciences (2024) Vol. 5 Issue 1: 77-87. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJALS.2024.050111.

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