Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science, 2024, 7(12); doi: 10.25236/AJCIS.2024.071214.
Boya Zhan
College of Computer, Jiangxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, 330004, China
The 2023 Wimbledon final showcased momentum shifts in Carlos Alcaraz's victory over Novak Djokovic. This study investigates momentum in tennis to inform tactical strategies. Firstly, we developed the Tennis Elite Rating and Factor Analysis System (TERFAS). Specifically, the factor analysis and combined weighting were used to quantify the impact of serve, break points and player skill. Then, 10 key metrics were identified and their impact on match performance as measured by real-time momentum insights was assessed using non-linear regression models. Additionally, we confirmed that momentum influences match outcomes using a logistic regression model validated by Pearson correlation. Furthermore, the ARIMA and Markov models were integrated into the MarkoRima Tennis Forecaster (MRTF) to provide strategy recommendations in order to improve accuracy. Meanwhile, we verified the validity and generalisability of the models using entropy analysis. Finally, simulation experiments show that the model designed in the article has good robustness and sensitivity.
TERFAS model, factor analysis method, Markov model, Arima model, relative entropy
Boya Zhan. A momentum synthesis model of the tennis ball based on the TERFAS. Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science (2024), Vol. 7, Issue 12: 96-103. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJCIS.2024.071214.
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