Academic Journal of Business & Management, 2026, 8(2); doi: 10.25236/AJBM.2026.080202.
Yang Hao1
1University of Malaya, Kuala Lumper, Malaysia
This study quantitatively assesses the impact of the 2020 purchase tax exemption policy on New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales in China and forecasts future market trajectories. Utilizing monthly data from 2014 to 2024, the research employs a hybrid framework combining Difference-in-Differences (DID) for causal inference and a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting. Exploratory analysis reveals high market volatility and a substitution effect (r = −0.35) against fuel vehicles. The DID results demonstrate that the policy renewal significantly boosted NEV sales, generating an average monthly increase of approximately 285,300 units relative to the counterfactual. Robustness is confirmed via parallel trend and placebo tests. Furthermore, the SARIMA model predicts continued growth throughout 2025, reaching an estimated 1.57 million monthly units by year-end, despite distinct seasonal fluctuations. The study concludes that fiscal incentives are highly effective but recommends a gradual phase-out strategy to avoid market volatility. These findings assist policymakers in optimizing exit mechanisms and manufacturers in adjusting inventory for seasonal cycles.
NEVs, Purchase Tax Exemption, DID, SARIMA, Policy Evaluation
Yang Hao. Analysis of Policy Impact on New Energy Vehicle Sales in China. Academic Journal of Business & Management (2026), Vol. 8, Issue 2: 8-13. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJBM.2026.080202.
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