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Academic Journal of Medicine & Health Sciences, 2026, 7(3); doi: 10.25236/AJMHS.2026.070306.

Divergent Temporal Trends in Hypertension Prevalence across Five East Asian Countries : A Time Series Analysis from 1990 to 2019

Author(s)

Zhangbo An1, Hongying Zhang2

Corresponding Author:
Zhangbo An
Affiliation(s)

1School of Government, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

2School of Laws and Humanities, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing, China

Abstract

Hypertension represents a critical global health challenge, particularly in East Asia where rapid demographic transitions have occurred. This study examines temporal trends in hypertension prevalence across five East Asian countries (China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, and Mongolia) from 1990 to 2019 using WHO Global Health Observatory data. Age-standardized hypertension prevalence data were extracted for adults aged 30-79 years. Temporal trends were analysed using Mann-Kendall test for trend detection, Sen's slope estimator for trend magnitude, and linear regression modelling. Lag-1 autocorrelation was assessed to evaluate temporal dependence. Separate analyses were conducted for overall prevalence and gender-stratified data. Among the five countries, three distinct trend patterns emerged. China exhibited a significant overall increasing trend (Sen's slope = 0.292 percent per year, p < 0.001) with a non-linear pattern characterized by an rise from 20.4% to a peak of 29.6%, followed by a decline to 27.1%. Japan and the Republic of Korea demonstrated consistent decreasing trends (Sen's slope = -0.178 and -0.214, respectively, both p < 0.001), with Japan showing the largest absolute reduction (-8.7 percentage points, -21.7% relative change). In contrast, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia showed significant increasing trends (Sen's slope = 0.086 and 0.129, both p < 0.01), though with smaller magnitude of change compared to China's initial rise. The divergent trajectories demonstrate that population-level hypertension reduction is achievable through sustained public health efforts, while highlighting the need for context-specific intervention strategies tailored to each country's stage of epidemiological transition.

Keywords

Hypertension, East Asia, Time-series analysis, Mann-Kendall test

Cite This Paper

Zhangbo An, Hongying Zhang. Divergent Temporal Trends in Hypertension Prevalence across Five East Asian Countries : A Time Series Analysis from 1990 to 2019. Academic Journal of Medicine & Health Sciences (2026), Vol. 7, Issue 3: 37-47. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJMHS.2026.070306.

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