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Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science, 2021, 4(3); doi: 10.25236/AJCIS.2021.040314.

Annual Water Consumption Forecast of Hefei Based on ARIMA Model


Zhu Bo1,3, Liu Yezheng1, Zheng Feifei2

Corresponding Author:
Zhu Bo

1School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui Province, China

2College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou Zhejiang Province, China

3Hefei Water Supply Group Co Ltd,, Hefei, Anhui Province, China  


The ARIMA entity model was used in Hefei's current water demand coding sequence from 1990 to 2018. According to the ADF (Unit Root Test), it is clear that the number of differences d in the entity model is 2, and the main parameters in the entity model p, q are basic identification based on time series analysis related graphs, and based on the Akaike Information Content Rule (AIC) and other methods It is clear that the optimal entity model is ARIMA (1,2,1). ARIMA (1,2,1) is used to predict and analyze Hefei's water demand in the next two years. The results show that the reason for the deviation between the estimated value and the specific value is relatively small, indicating that the actual effect of the actual model predictive analysis is excellent.


ARIMA entity model of annual water consumption; predictive analysis; AIC

Cite This Paper

Zhu Bo, Liu Yezheng, Zheng Feifei. Annual Water Consumption Forecast of Hefei Based on ARIMA Model. Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science (2021), Vol. 4, Issue 3: 88-93. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJCIS.2021.040314.


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