Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science, 2021, 4(4); doi: 10.25236/AJCIS.2021.040402.

## Prediction and Analysis of Fire Rescue Times Based on ARMA Model

Author(s)

Zhiyuan Wang

Corresponding Author:
Zhiyuan Wang
Affiliation(s)

Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, College of Automation, Chongqing Municipality, 400065

### Abstract

In order to study the prediction and analysis of fire rescue in a certain area, this paper mainly forecasts the number of police calls by establishing a mathematical model, and analyzes the correlation between the area and the incident. Given the number of calls in each month of 2016-2020, we can predict the number of fire rescue calls in each month of 2021 in the future. Because different times are not linearly related to the number of calls, we can establish a model through the time series data of paper [1]. This paper establishes ARMA model to study the law of the development of the number of police calls over time. The accuracy and stability of the model are verified by the data set in 2020, and the number of fire rescue police calls in each month of 2021 is predicted by this model.

### Keywords

ARMA model, Time series model, Goodness of fit

### Cite This Paper

Zhiyuan Wang. Prediction and Analysis of Fire Rescue Times Based on ARMA Model. Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science (2021), Vol. 4, Issue 4: 12-15. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJCIS.2021.040402.

### References

[1] Jiang Qiyuan. Mathematical modeling (2nd Edition) [M]. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 1993

[2] Li Daqian. Mathematical modeling contest for Chinese college students (2nd Edition) [M]. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 1998

[3] Han Zhonggeng, mathematical modeling method and its application, 365 pages, higher education press, 2005