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International Journal of New Developments in Engineering and Society, 2017, 1(2); doi: 10.25236/IJNDES.17220.

Research on the Demand Forecast of Rail Transit and Intercity Railway Passenger Flow based on Improved Logit Model


Cong Zhou

Corresponding Author:
Cong Zhou

Transport College, Beijing Transportation University,  Beijing, 100044


This paper analyzes the connotation of urban integrated passenger transport hub from the perspective of traffic engineering, analyzes the characteristics of urban integrated passenger transport hub, divides the types of integrated passenger transport hubs, and analyzes the types of hubs used by different types of cities. The passenger demand, the willingness and the ability to purchase the passenger service needs as the premise, define the urban comprehensive passenger terminal passenger demand research scope, namely the hub external passenger demand, the hub demand and the hub parking demand three aspects. Based on the survey of passenger transport demand and passenger characteristics and the data collection, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism and selection rule of passenger preference, introduces the concept of passenger dependency on the characteristics of passenger service, quantifies the passenger willingness, The mapping of passenger service characteristics. The probability of distribution of different passenger services is subject to a number of logit probability distribution models as assumptions to solve the passenger willingness and dependency of different passenger services.


Logit Model, Railway and Intercity Passenger, Demand Forecast

Cite This Paper

Cong Zhou.Research on the Demand Forecast of Rail Transit and Intercity Railway Passenger Flow based on Improved Logit Model.  International Journal of New Developments in Engineering and Society (2017) Vol.1, Num.2: 81-84.


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