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The Frontiers of Society, Science and Technology, 2021, 3(6); doi: 10.25236/FSST.2021.030611.

Number regression and prediction of Chinese seniors based on the ARIMA model


Yingshuo Li1, Yu Liu2

Corresponding Author:
Yingshuo Li

1Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, 266000, China

2Weihai Campus of Shandong University, Weihai, Shandong, 264200, China


China's aging population developed rapidly in the 21st century, It has brought a significant impact on the changes in China's social security system and labor force structure, In 2021, the "seven general" data show that the aging process of China's society continues to climb, This paper will be based on the number of 65 in China from 1990-2020, Using the time-series ARIMA model, , Differential ideas derived from data stationarity, Unit root inspection, Model order, AIC and BIC coefficients in contrast, Model error analysis, As well as model prediction analysis, the number of elderly population in China from 2021 to 2030, The research results show that the number of elderly people in China is still increasing in the next few years, And put forward the corresponding policy suggestions for the results.


Time series, ARIMA model, Population aging, Population prediction

Cite This Paper

Yingshuo Li, Yu Liu. Number regression and prediction of Chinese seniors based on the ARIMA model. The Frontiers of Society, Science and Technology (2021) Vol. 3, Issue 6: 68-71. https://doi.org/10.25236/FSST.2021.030611.


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