Welcome to Francis Academic Press

Academic Journal of Business & Management, 2022, 4(2); doi: 10.25236/AJBM.2022.040220.

The Interaction between China's Goods Trade Imports and Export Development --Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model with Co-integration Test

Author(s)

Yi Li

Corresponding Author:
Yi Li
Affiliation(s)

Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, China

Abstract

International trade theory believes that goods import and export have different relationships in different countries, this paper uses the year of 1978 to 2020’s Chinese goods import and export data to establish a VAR model and co-integration test of the econometric model for empirical analysis, this paper found that: (1) imports and exports of goods trade show a positive relationship, there is a unique co-integration relationship; (2) From the VAR model can be analyzed obtained that the import of goods trade is the Granger cause of export, that is, the export of goods can promote the development of goods import. Therefore, it is believed that there is a development interaction between the import and export of goods in China, and China should improve the relationship between import and export by driving the export with import, so as to develop our foreign trade stably.

Keywords

Goods Import; Goods Export; VAR Model; Cointegration Test

Cite This Paper

Yi Li. The Interaction between China's Goods Trade Imports and Export Development --Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model with Co-integration Test. Academic Journal of Business & Management (2022) Vol. 4, Issue 2: 112-123. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJBM.2022.040220.

References

[1] Yao Zhanqi. Cointegration relationship between service import and export trade and economic growth in China [J]. Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,2009,31(10):53-63.

[2] Ren YJ. An examination of the relationship between China's imports and exports [J]. Contemporary Economic Science, 2003(04): 23-28+93.

[3] Yin, Zhonghua, Song, Weiming. An empirical analysis of the relationship between China's log imports and wood forest products exports--based on co-integration analysis and Granger causality test [J]. International Trade Issues, 2009(02): 27-32.

[4] Zhang H, Liu JQ, Gu HM. Empirical analysis of the pulling effect of foreign aggregate demand and aggregate supply on China's economic growth [J]. World Economy, 2005(04): 52-59+80.

[5] Liu, Poor-Chi. Export tax rebates and China's export incentive policy [J]. World Economy, 2005 (06): 37-43.

[6] Husted, S. (1992). The emerging U.S. current account deficit in the 1980: A cointegration analysis. review of Economics and Statistics, 74, 159-166.

[7] Arize, A. C. (2002). Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks. international Review of Economics and Finance, 11, 101 International Review of Economics and Finance, 11, 101 -115.

[8] Fountas, S., & Wu, J. L. (1999). Are the U.S. current account deficits really sustainable? International Economic Journal, 13, 51-58.

[9] Konya, L., & Singh, J. P. (2008). Are Indian exports and imports cointegrated? Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8, 177-186.

[10] Gao, Feng, Fan, Bingquan, Wang, Jintian. The relationship between China's import and export trade and economic growth--an empirical analysis based on error correction model [J]. International Trade Issues, 2005(07): 5-9.

[11] Zhang, Luqing, Wang, Weiwei. A study of China's import demand function - an empirical analysis based on boundary cointegration [J]. International Trade Issues, 2010(08): 13-19. DOI: 10.13510/j.cnki. jit. 2010.08.004.

[12] Zhang Xiaoyu, Liu Yongfu, Zhou. 70JinlanYear study on the dynamic relationship between China's foreign trade and economic growth [J]. World Economic Research, 2019(10): 3-14+66+134.

[13] Xiong Chenran, Wang Limao, Qu Qiushi, Xiang Ning, Wang Bo. Two-way interaction analysis of China's geo-economic relations with neighboring countries [J]. World Geography Research, 2019, 28(05): 11-23.

[14] Wang Qunyong. Research on the equilibrium relationship of China's import and export trade [J]. Contemporary Finance and Economics, 2004(11): 92-95.

[15] Li Xin. A study on the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics between China's import and export trade [J]. Statistics and Decision Making, 2011(22): 129-131. DOI: 10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2011. 22.017.