Application of Grey Model in GNP Prediction and Analysis of Sichuan Province

Author(s)

Xinyao Zhang, Jie Ou

Corresponding Author:
Xinyao Zhang
Affiliation(s)

School of Mathematic and Statistics, Southwest University, Beibei District of Chongqing, 400715, China

Abstract

This paper establishes the 30-dimensional long sequence of Sichuan Province's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2010-2019 and corrects the normal gray model of 6-dimensional short sequence by improving the initial value solution condition method of differential equation. After testing the paper model, the results show that the 6-dimensional short sequence gray prediction model modified by improving the initial value solution condition method of differential equation predicts good Sichuan GNP from 2020-2021.

Keywords

GNP product; Gray theory; GM (1,1) model; Residue correction

Cite This Paper

Xinyao Zhang, Jie Ou. Application of Grey Model in GNP Prediction and Analysis of Sichuan Province. Academic Journal of Business & Management (2022) Vol. 4, Issue 5: 29-34. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJBM.2022.040507.

References

[1] Yang Zhikai, Fan Yanqin, Yin Haiting, Bloomberg. Prediction study of GDP in Guilin based on the ARIMA model [J]. Journal of Guilin Institute of Aerospace Industry, 2021, 4: (477-483)

[2] Chen Xianxiong. The predictive analysis of total health costs in Guangdong province —— was based on the GM (1,1) model [J]. Productivity Research 2021, 11

[3] Huyan. An Empirical Analysis and Prediction of Xinjiang GDP Based on the Optimized Grey Model [J]. Yili Normal University, 2021, 12

[4] Li Zhiqiang, Zhang Li, Chen Maozhou. Grey model of GNP prediction in Shandong Province [J]. Journal of Shandong Agricultural University, 2008, 39 (2): 263-266.

[5] Han Zhonggeng. Mathematical modeling methods and their application [M]. Beijing, Higher Education Press, 2005.

[6] Deng Julong. Grey prediction and grey decision-making [M]. Wuhan, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press, 2002.

[7] Deng Julong. Gray System Theory Tutorials [M]. Wuhan, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press, 1990.

[8] Zhai Zhonghe. Analysis and prediction of the factors related to GNP [J]. Journal of Harbin University of Science and Technology, 1995,9 (15): 67-71.

[9] Qu Xiaokang, Jiang array sword. Application of Grey System Theory in Human Resource Demand prediction [J]. Operation and Management, 2008,38 (1): 121-143.

[10] MaYuan, Wang Warm. Application of the MATLAB-based grey model in urban monthly water supply prediction [J]. Municipal Technology, 2008,26 (4): 368-369.

[11] Door, Jiang Liangyu, Zhu Hongtai. Chinese Macroeconomic Development Forecast Based on Optimization Grey Model [J]. Statistics and Decision-making, 2008.