Chen Yunuo1, Yu Zhouze1, Song Jingwei2
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hubei Normal University, Huangshi 435002, Hubei, China
2School of Physics and Electronic Science, Hubei Normal University, Huangshi 435002, Hubei, China
We establish a mathematical model for calculating fertility costs and fertility willingness, and analyze the index system of factors affecting the fertility costs of ordinary Chinese families. Firstly, we obtain the initial weights through the AHP method, and then construct the envelopes of the weights and fitted the curves. In addition, the BP neural network is used to predict the population growth with or without the three-child policy, to obtain the population in the next three years, and study the difference between the two to obtain the ratio of the difference to the population growth without the three-child policy, thereby obtaining the three-child policy. Finally, the main factors affecting fertility willingness and fertility cost at home and abroad are studied.
AHP, BP neural network, envelope, multiple nonlinear regression
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