Shandong Experimental High School, Jinan, China
The quantitative trading strategy of stock market in developed countries has been very mature, but the quantitative trading strategy of China's stock market has only begun to develop in recent years. In this paper, the closing levels of CSI 300 Index from 2002 to 2022 were selected as the research objects. Monte Carlo simulation method was used to simulate the closing levels of the next 30 trading days, and the simulation results of the last trading day were counted and analyzed. It is found that most of the results of Monte Carlo simulation are in the reasonable range, and the occasional extreme case has similar cases in history. Therefore, the use of Monte Carlo simulation can roughly simulate the future period of income and risk situation, to provide a certain degree of help for investors to make decisions.
Quantitative trading; CSI 300 Index; Monte Carlo simulation method; Trend prediction; China Stock market
Zhu Qingquan. Research on the trend of Chinese stock market based on Monte Carlo simulation method. Academic Journal of Mathematical Sciences (2022) Vol. 3, Issue 2: 1-5. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJMS.2022.030201.
 Grundy B D, Kim Y.(2002). Stock Market Volatility in a Heterogeneous Information Economy. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis(01),1-28.
 Tharavanij P, Siraprapasiri V, Rajchamaha K.(2015). Performance of technical trading rules: evidence from Southeast Asian stock markets. Springerplus(01),552.
 Ratner M, Leal RPC.(2015). Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity: markets of Latin America and Asia. Journal of Banking &Finance(9),52-53.
 Fang Kuangnan, Ji Hong, Lu Xun.(2009). Research on similarity and effectiveness of stock technical Indicators. Statistics and Information Forum (09),26-30.
 Bao Yi.(2015). Research on the validity of technical analysis of Chinese stock market. Published master's thesis, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai.
 Hua Yu.(2019). Empirical analysis of quantitative investment trend strategy. Modern Marketing (Management Edition)(01),189.
 Yu Tongtong. (2020). Quantitative stock trading strategy analysis based on artificial intelligence and visualization technology. Think Tank Times (09),49-50.
 Li Yanzi, Wang Hanmo. (2016). Portfolio risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation method. The new economy (17), 38.