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Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science, 2022, 5(12); doi: 10.25236/AJCIS.2022.051211.

A study of China's population forecast based on a combination model


Long Wang

Corresponding Author:
Long Wang

School of Software, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, 330022, China


The population issue has always been one of the key factors affecting the development of China. Building a strong socialist country faces a serious situation with a large population. With the rapid development of China's economy and the implementation of the national population policy, the question of how many people there will be in China in the future becomes extremely important, and the establishment of a population model, which can forecast the number of people more accurately, is a prerequisite for controlling the population growth. Therefore, this paper roots out a model to predict the future population change in China by analyzing the data related to China's population.To address problem, this paper first establishes a logistic model, and a gray prediction model. Under the assumptions, the prediction accuracy of the models is analyzed according to the historical data of China, and the results show that the accuracy of the models is high. Then, the models are used to predict the population in 2030, and the corresponding results are obtained. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy, this paper adopts the combination prediction method with unequal weights to establish the combination prediction model, calculates the weights of the prediction models separately and obtains the prediction values of the combination prediction model, and the results show that the total population of China is expected to be 150,893,000 in 2030.


Logistic model, gray prediction model, prediction

Cite This Paper

Long Wang. A study of China's population forecast based on a combination model. Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science (2022), Vol. 5, Issue 12: 76-81. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJCIS.2022.051211.


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