Welcome to Francis Academic Press

International Journal of Frontiers in Sociology, 2023, 5(2); doi: 10.25236/IJFS.2023.050207.

Analysis of Spillover Effects of Digital Economy—An Empirical Study Based on Time Series Input-Output

Author(s)

Zhenlong Miao

Corresponding Author:
Zhenlong Miao
Affiliation(s)

School of Entrepreneurship, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the composition and relationship of the factors that affect the output of digital economy. Theoretically, this study redefined the digital economy, whose essence is the component and economic forms of economic reproduction of digital elements. Empirically, we take Zhejiang Province, who has developed as the digital economy highland of China, as the research object. To assess the output effects of the digital economy, this study constructed an evaluation system comprising five indicators and 22 sub-indicators. Based on statistical data from 1998 to 2018, principal component analysis, unit root test and co-integration analysis were conducted in this paper, and then a vector autoregressive model was constructed. The results showed that, when other conditions remain unchanged, each unit of human capital and technology development will increase by 0.814 units and 1.112 units of digital economic output in Zhejiang Province, respectively. However, the variables of ICT application and infrastructure are in a state of stagnation due to the complete construction. The continuous investment cannot bring about significant growth but may occupy too many resources such as limited capital policies or drag down the digital output. Therefore, while increasing the investment in human capital variables and technology development variables, we need to reduce the investment in ICT application variables and infrastructure variables to maximize the digital economy's output efficiency.

Keywords

digital economy; unit root test; time series analysis; cointegration test; principal component analysis; VAR; Zhejiang

Cite This Paper

Zhenlong Miao. Analysis of Spillover Effects of Digital Economy—An Empirical Study Based on Time Series Input-Output. International Journal of Frontiers in Sociology (2023), Vol. 5, Issue 2: 35-45. https://doi.org/10.25236/IJFS.2023.050207.

References

[1] Tapscott, D.: The Digital Economy: Promise and Peril in the Age of Networked Intelligence. New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies. 1996: 156-168.

[2] Liu, W., Miao, Z. L.: Research on the Relationship between Dynamic Evaluation of Digital Economy and Regional Income Based on Entropy Method. Academic Journal of Business & Management. 2022,4(17):30-40.

[3] Barefoot, K, Curtis, D, Jolliff, W, et al.: Defining and Measuring the Digital Economy. Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. Department of Commerce, Working Paper 2018:1-24.

[4] Moroz, M.: The Level of Development of the Digital Economy in Poland and Selected European Countries: A Comparative Analysis. Foundations of Management. 2017,9(1): 175-190 .

[5] Sun, J., Miao, Z. L., Chen, X. Y.: The Impact of China's Information Technology Gap on Regional Income Difference. Economic Geography. 2019,39(12), 31-38.

[6] OECD.: OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2017. Paris: OECD Publishing .2017:11-13.

[7] OECD.: A Roadmap Toward a Common Framework for Measuring the Digital Economy. Paris: OECD Publishing. 2020:56-66.

[8] Milošević, N., Dobrota, M., Rakočević, S. B.: Digital Economy in Europe: Evaluation of Countries' Performances. Preliminary Communication. 2018,36(2): 861-880 .

[9] Lin, Y., Jiang, X. Y.: Research on Establishing and Improving the Statistical System of the Digital Economy. Statistics Science and Practice.2019, (01): 17-20.

[10] Pearson, K.: Principal Components Analysis. Lond. Edin. Dublin Philos. Mag. J. Sci. 1901,6(2): 559–572.

[11] Hotelling, H.: Analysis of a Complex of Statistical Variables into Principal Components. J. Educ. Psychol. 1933,(24), 417–441.

[12] Jackson, J. E.: Quality Control Methods for Several Related Variables. Techno Metrics, 1959,1 (4): 359-377.

[13] Flury, B.: Common Principal Components and Related Models. New York, NY: Wiley 1988,1-6.

[14] Jolliffe, I. T., Cadima, J.: Principal Component Analysis: A Review and Recent Developments. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2016,374(2065), 2015-2020.

[15] Lever, J., Krzywinski, M., Altman, N.: Points of Significance: Principal Component Analysis. Nature Methods. 2017,14(7): 641–642.

[16] Yule, G. U.: Why Do We Sometimes Get Nonsense Correlations Between Time Series? A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Times Series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.1926, (89): 1-64.

[17] Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A.: Distribution of Estimation for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1979,74(366): 427-431.

[18] Akaike, H.: A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification (PDF). IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control. 1974,19(6): 716–723.

[19] Hannan, E. J., Quinn, B. G.: The Determination of the Order of An Autoregression. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 41: 1979,2(3):190-195.

[20] Sims, C. A.: Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica. 1980,48(1): 1–48.

[21] Bukht, R., Heeks, R.: Defining, Conceptualising and Measuring the Digital Economy, GDI Development Informatics Working Papers, no. 68, Global Development Institute, The University of Manchester, Manchester, 2017,(2):1-24.

[22] Miao, Z. L.: Digital economy value chain: concept, model structure, and mechanism. Applied Economics. 2021,53(37):4342–4357.