In 2022, China experienced its first population decline since 1961, with a decrease of 850,000 individuals. Data from the Bureau of Statistics revealed a birth rate of 9.56 million and a death rate of 10.41 million, resulting in a negative natural population growth rate of -0.60‰. This shift presents both opportunities and risks. Our paper explores these opportunities by focusing on the population and analyzing it using seven evaluation indicators. We categorized indicators based on input-output characteristics, established a population dividend evaluation system with seven sub-systems, and processed reliable data from government sources, normalizing it, addressing negative impact indicators, and conducting principal component analysis. The resulting indicators are: demographic dividend, longevity opportunity, human capital, allocation efficiency, economic development, financial expenditure, and labor system. Drawing from our analysis, we developed the DEA-CCR model and used the DEA-solver to analyze it. Our findings indicate that, in the past decade, three years marked DEA efficiency in our country, reflecting optimal input-output ratios and maximized human capital utilization. However, for years of inefficiency, we propose promoting coordinated development, adjusting labor and financial inputs, and addressing societal issues. We recommend optimizing resource allocation, investing in education, transforming from a populous to a talent-driven nation, and strengthening public infrastructure. By implementing these strategies, we aim to address negative population growth challenges and seize new demographic opportunities.

Jiayi Wu. Statistical measure analysis of new population opportunities under the background of negative growth. Academic Journal of Humanities & Social Sciences (2024) Vol. 7, Issue 4: 227-233. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJHSS.2024.070436.

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