Accurately identifying the actual role of Guangdong's green power policy in energy transition is of great significance for optimizing regional energy layout and facilitating the implementation of the "dual carbon" goals. Existing studies mostly assess policy effects at the provincial level, making it difficult to reveal regional heterogeneity and true net effects within the province. For this purpose, this paper takes the launch of the green electricity trading market in Guangdong in 2021 as a policy shock, selects panel data of 21 cities in Guangdong from 2016 to 2024, and conducts empirical analysis with carbon emission intensity, proportion of non-fossil energy consumption, and per capita electricity consumption as core indicators. Based on the benchmark DID model, control variables such as economy, technology, and industry were introduced, and confounding factors were stripped through stepwise regression and placebo tests to accurately identify the net effect of the policy, and regional heterogeneity tests were conducted to ensure the reliability of the research results. The results show that: (1) The launch of the green electricity trading market in Guangdong Province in 2021 has a significant positive net effect on the energy structure transformation; (2) The policy effect was robust and showed a gradient difference of "Guangzhou-Shenzhen > other Pearl River Delta > eastern, western, and northern Guangdong". Based on this, it is suggested that Guangdong improve the green power trading mechanism, implement differentiated regional policies, increase support for the eastern, western, and northern regions of Guangdong, promote the synergy of green power and carbon markets, and facilitate energy transition and the realization of the "dual carbon" goals. 

Tianhui Li, Xinyu Zhao, Zhihao Liang, Weige Sun, Guorui Zhao. Research on the Effectiveness of Guangdong's Green Electricity Policy on Energy Structure Transformation under the Dual Carbon Goals Based on the Difference-in-differences Model. Academic Journal of Environment & Earth Science (2026), Vol. 8, Issue 1: 84-90. https://doi.org/10.25236/AJEE.2026.080112.

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